Are there any Resilient Cities?

No city is ready for the changes that are approaching, though some have more work to do than others. There are many cities in the world which use almost zero amounts of oil such as the cities of China and India (which use about 15 gallons per person, though they are rapidly increasing as cars take over their transport systems, especially new cars like the Nano) and other parts of the third world such as Bogota, Columbia and Curitiba, Brazil, which use around 40 gallons per person. This should be compared to Atlanta at close to 800 gallons per person and the average US city at around 400 gallons per person. Is this just wealth? Obviously not, as wealthy cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei use between 40 and 80 gallons per person and most European cities are around 150 gallons per person with Barcelona just 60.

Even in oil-dependent cities there are large areas which use very little transport fuel. For example, the City of Sydney has one of the lowest levels of fuel use per person in the world. The inner suburbs (which also happen to be the wealthiest areas) use two to five times less than the outer and fringe suburbs. In central New York fuel use per person is around 90 gallons, the inner area is around 150 gallons and the outer suburbs are 450 gallons. Overall the city-region is the lowest fuel using city in the US as transit is more available. Most importantly this means the average cost of transportation in New York is 30 percent less than the average US city.

In Manhattan and central Sydney car use is minimal and they have considerable resilience for a fuel-constrained future. But what about their surrounding suburbs which often are no different to the car dependent areas of Atlanta and Houston? No American or Australian city is anything like ready for the huge pressure on their transit systems as these outer suburbs begin to crumble under fuel constraints. The heavily car dependent suburbs that have spread around most US, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand, and even around many European cities can still create a hopeful future for themselves – though they will have to work harder than cities that are already on the path to resiliency.

In New York City, 79 percent of greenhouse gas emissions come from buildings, and nationwide buildings account for over 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, 65 percent of electricity consumption, and 36 percent of all energy used[i]. So while parts of our cities will be walkable and transit oriented in a time of peak oil, there are still energy and climate change pressures which remain at the building level across the whole of the city.